Ambergris Caye Heightens Alert as Beryl’s Path Tilts in Our Direction
This morning I woke up before 6am to the sound of Jeff rummaging through drawers, swearing and slamming cabinets. He was looking for the storm panel bolts. Not a great sign.
Hurricane Beryl, currently a Major Hurricane (Cat 3) is barreling towards The Grenadines and Grenada. The good news for Belize – if there is much – is that is almost 2000 miles away from us. The bad news is that overnight, the projections took a tilt to the south. And Belize is in her sights.
The latest projection from “How Close Can It Get” model for our house at 8 miles north of San Pedro. It is 92 hours away. And can get 37 miles from our house. That’s…not comforting.
Here is the wording that the National Hurricane Center uses in the early morning update: “The hurricane is forecast to turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big change from earlier so I don’t want to bite off on that evolution just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the model consensus for continuity purposes.”
The National Hurricane Center updates 4x a day: 5:00 AM EDT, 11:00 AM EDT, 5:00 PM EDT, and 11:00 PM EDT or Belize Time: 3am, 9am, 3pm and 9pm.
Not great. The current path has it passing just north of Chetumal, Mexico (between Mahahual and Xcalak, Mexico) – but this wording makes it sound as if much of Belize is still in the potential path.
The most recent update from the NHC
What are we doing?
Yesterday, the construction crew started to secure materials and board up the new construction at Rocky Point Permit Camp, 18 miles north San Pedro. Most of the crew, who is primarily from Northern Belize (the Corozal district) will be heading home to their families.
This morning we have started planning. 5 gallon containers of fresh water and tap water (for toilets) – securing food and provisions for pets/us, thinking about securing the inside of our house for potential water entry/damage, checking medication, thinking where we can park the golf carts in case of flooding (our yard saw some SERIOUS flooding during Hurricane Earl – 2016, a Cat One), etc.
I have messaged with larger resorts this morning – to ask how they are advising guests. Here is the consensus: We started talking to guests about travel insurance late last week. It currently looks like we can experience a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and that this would mean airport closures and will most likely be talking to guests about rebooking. We await official word from the Belize Tourism Board today.
This island DEFINITELY operates BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY. We are primarily at or below sea level. And infrastructure is no where up to the standards of say…a Florida or a Houston. If a storm hits, roads can flood, we can be without services/power/transportation for a while. Again…this is 90+ hours away but people here know to prepare.
The Truck Stop has announced that they will close Wednesday – Friday this week. Here is their announcement, they have also postponed their Farmers Market scheduled for July 6th. “After much consideration, we have decided to play it safe and close The Truck Stop on Wednesday for Hurricane Beryl. We have been very fortunate to not have to cancel events, however we feel it is best for both the business and The Truck Stop team to stay safe, and be with their families throughout the storms. We will be open today and tomorrow, so come get your Truck Stop fix before we close down. We will re open Saturday evening for dinner service if the weather allows for it. Thank you all for your continued support. Stay safe everyone!”
Watching the hurricane websites, talk to your lodging/hotel and those who are here…start preparing. BE SAFE EVERYONE.
Hopefully, by the end of the week, we are all looking back and thinking…what a lot of work for nothing!
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I was on Ambergris Caye one year ago in beautiful, (hot and humid), weather. Good luck and stay safe everyone.
Hot and humid and sunny is the norm. This crazy early storm…ARGH!
In 1989 and 1990 my husband Lee Wise built Palm House. I miss San Pedro and its beauty. I was there when there was pretty much nothing there. Our house was the last in the road. I can’t imagine how it has changed. Be safe and I pray for everyone!
Which part of the island was that on? I’m guessing in or around town since..it was such a small island then!
thank you for the updates, and please stay safe! You all are in our thoughts.
Thank you.
Stalking your page. Let us know how we can help!
Will do 🙂 All we can do is watch and prepare right now. Oh…and hope and pray!
Ken Saxton and Teresa S. Beware and keep your heads down!
I just left my house on AC last week but other family is scheduled to arrive just when Beryl is supposed to land. Thinking of you and everyone there!
I visited your construction site (permit camp) in March. Looked like you had considerable work to still complete.
I hope you have made good progress .
Wishing all the very best thru this and
Hope to hear all was well on the otherwise of this
Regards Andrew C
We’ve made good progress 🙂 come back and visit next time!
Praying for all of our friends on the island!
Thinking of you and everyone else on the island. Sure hope the preparations prove to be overkill. You’re very smart to take Beryl seriously!
i have plans to visit 7/9 to 7/14 for lobster fest, hope it will have pushed past with zero damage!
You guys will be here for all the fun. Looks like (CROSS ALL FINGERS!) she’s moving a bit to the north. See you at the festival!
please stay safe everyone thank you so much for the update. We love Belize in a matter fact we had just bought enclosed on our property last week. Our prayers and thoughts will be with you all and we will see you in the near future.
Thank goodness we are taking climate warming so serious, I’m as sure as the rest of you this concept of an early large hurricane forming so suddenly has never never accured in the last 10K years. What I don’t understand is how a few million people 10M years ago heated the climate so extremely it wiped out the Northern and Southern Ice caps to melt completely. How did man cause that???? Because according to these nut cases belief the climate is stagnant on this rock and only man can manipulate it.
Hey Scoop.
This guy has a pretty good YouTube channel. He is always right on these storms.
https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealBPEarthWatch.
This storm keeps changing.
I tried GPT Chat Bot artificial intelligence but it doesn’t do the weather.
Ventusky has changing patterns too. That site shows the storm center like 45 miles north of Ambergris Friday.
Old saying with these storms when in doubt get out.
No need for anyone to get hurt. Buildings are just building materials. They can be put right back up.
Getting out is not an option…for us but yes…that seems like a great rule of thumb if you are visiting. FOR SURE. We booked our camp guests into Grand Caribe – cement structures, SOLID, generators…to be safe.
Praying for all of Ambergris Caye. Be safe and well.
We are supposed to leave July 4th. Staying at the Hilton. We certainly did not receive a warning before our arrival on Sunday, and are praying that your last sentence is true. Their plan is currently no plan. For a while today, they discussed moving us to a safer location but have decided it is not necessary. Our hope is that they are right as our options are limited at this point.
Things are looking better for us – but it’s still a few days away. But feeling much better – hope you guys are too. What a mess!
Sending prayers for our friends on the island! Stay safe folks!
Please be safe and adhere to warnings. This is a dangerous hurricane. GET OFF the island, NOW
I spent lots of time on Ambergris years ago before anything was there. It was my favorite place in the world. That water is sooo beautiful. So sorry you are under this threat. Please be careful and use your best judgement. North, hopefully North it will go! My thoughts and prayers are with you all.
Stay safe everyone that I know on the Island. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
Thanks so much!