Watching: Tropical Storm Sara Predicted to Form Off Coast of Central America
WTF Belize! There is a system that has been gathering steam off the southern coast of Jamaica for the last few days and it is MID NOVEMBER. Summer ended 52 days ago (Sept. 21), winter starts in 39 days (Dec 22). We are in later Fall!
A tropical storm and possibly hurricane feels all wrong right now.
NHC Update: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
But here we are. Tropical Sara has a very high percentage of forming in the next 48 hours. And though her path is far from certain – the possible effects would be hitting Belize (rain…potential winds) on Monday afternoon (as predicted now) – this is one of those ugly storms that can stall and linger and swoop in odd directions. We have time to monitor…and to prepare. And this one is currently predicted to swoop towards Florida so she is being HIGHLY monitored.
I am, CLEARLY 😉 , no weatherperson. So here are all the sites and social media pages I try to watch in these sorts of situations.
Wunderground Hurricane and Severe Weather
Tropical Tidbits so you can run the forecast models for the Western Caribbean (pick Western Caribbean on the regions section) – you’ll also see how predictions can shift and change – even in one day. And for video updates from Levi – Jeff’s weather hero.
Windfinder for Ambergris Caye specific weather forecasting
Mike’s Weather Page on Facebook – he’s also got crazy Spaghettimodels.com – the most insane jumble of weather charts I’ve ever seen
And in Belize, our official NEMO sites (National Emergency Management Organization) – here is the Facebook page for our island. There are NO advisories for Belize currently.
Be safe out there! It’s a good time of year to get/have Travel Insurance for sure. We won’t know anything “for sure” until later this week but again, keep those eyes peeled.
Jeff is having some plywood delivered later today for the new camp because…well…better safe than sorry.
Posted in:
Be cautious..be safe..
Hurricane season really should be extended months on both sides…heck, let’s just be proactive and say ‘January to December. ‘
It feels like that for real. We had a threat in the last week of June/1st day of July and now…too much!
Any guidance for visitors on how to make good decisions about whether to change plans?
I think you can expect a very wet weekend – but should clear up after that. We are waiting for tomorrow morning to make a decision about moving our boat (we’d beach it at the camp rather than leave it in the water) it depends on the direction this storm heads in and the amount of rain expected. I think you need to talk to you lodging for more specific information.
I’m suppose to fly in late this Saturday afternoon and drive to Placencia. Think it’ll be okay, or will all travel plans likely be delayed?
I think it’s still up in the air. It’s wiggling around…the more land it brushes, the better for us. But it could be a ton of rain! I’m not sure how that’ll leave the roads on the way to Placencia. To hard to say!