Still 4-5 Days Away, Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ernesto Now Projected to Hit Riviera Maya, Mexico North of Belize

I am no meteorologist.  I only know what is being published on the various weather websites but I am getting TONS of questions about Tropical Storm (projected to be Hurricane) Ernesto.   Here is what I do know:  the storm is still 4 days away and so all of us in the area  (witin the “circles of possibility”) need to keep a very close eye on it.   Projections can change drastically in a few hours and certainly in one day.  Last night, the various weather sites had it moving northward towards Cancun, today it is more centered on the Yucatan Peninsula south of Tulum.This morning:

My point…size, direction, speed…they all change.  Predicting a hurricane is lots of science and a bit of educated guesswork.

Here is a map of the Yucatan peninsula.  Ambergris Caye (also known as US) is the little nub of land just below Xcalak, Mexico.  If the Mayans hadn’t dug that canal, we’d still be part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Map borrowed from

Should you cancel your vacation to Belize right now?  No.  But keep you eye on the various weather sites.  And though I am geting way ahead of myself do know that the weather just after a storm passes through the area tends to be GLORIOUS.  Never better.

Here are the sites I look each day during Hurricane Season:

The National Hurricane Center US Govt. Official Website, Wunderground Tropical Site and the US Navy Hurricane Center.

Keep an eye on this storm.

Which sites do you use?

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